The Transfer Portal Dilemma: Why Your Next Move Should Be About Fit, Not Fortune

By B.Jones December 11, 2024

The numbers are staggering. Day one of the 2024-25 transfer portal window saw an unprecedented 1,537 FBS players declare their intentions to explore new opportunities. That’s nearly double the entries from last year’s winter window opening. As I sit in my office watching these numbers climb, one thing becomes crystal clear: not all of these student-athletes have thought this through.

The Gold Rush Mentality

“Everyone’s chasing the bag,” a Power 5 assistant coach told me yesterday, speaking on condition of anonymity. “But what these kids don’t realize is that NIL money without playing time is just a short-term fix. You can’t make it to the NFL from the bench, no matter how many local car dealership ads you’re in. “He’s right. The transfer portal has become college football’s version of the gold rush, with players diving headfirst into uncertain waters, often without a life jacket – or in this case, a solid plan.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Let’s talk hard facts. Of the 1,537 players who entered the portal on day one:

• Roughly 25% will land at Power 5 programs
• Another 30% will find homes at Group of 5 schools
• The remaining 45%? They’re facing an uncertain future that could include dropping to FCS, Division II, or worse – leaving football entirely

“It’s like musical chairs,” says former Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien. “Except when the music stops, hundreds of players are left standing.”

The Cautionary Tales

Take the case of Marcus Thompson (name changed to protect privacy), a former four-star recruit who entered the portal last year chasing NIL dollars. He left a stable situation where he was projected to start, chasing rumors of six-figure deals. Today, he’s at his third school in two years, buried on the depth chart, with NIL deals that never materialized. “I wish someone had sat me down and talked about fit,” Thompson told me. “The money sounds great, but if you’re not on the field, those deals dry up quick.”

The Success Stories

Contrast that with players like Miller Moss, who entered the portal this week after USC’s coaching change. Sources close to the situation tell me Moss has a detailed plan, a list of schools that run systems matching his skill set, and is prioritizing offensive schemes and coaching stability over NIL potential. “Miller’s doing it right,” says a prominent player agent who works with NFL draft picks. “He’s looking at offensive systems, quarterback rooms, and coaching staff track records. The NIL stuff? That’s secondary. He knows if he performs on the field, the money will follow.”

The Smart Approach

For players considering the portal, here’s what industry experts recommend:

Research Before Jumping

• Study depth charts
• Analyze offensive/defensive schemes
• Investigate coaching stability
• Review graduation rates and academic programs

Have a Concrete Plan

• List your top 5 realistic landing spots
• Secure recommendations from current coaches
• Understand your immediate eligibility status
• Have academic transcripts ready

Stay Informed

• Monitor coaching changes
• Track other transfers at your position
• Understand NIL marketplace realities
• Know transfer windows and deadlines

The NIL Reality Check

“These six-figure NIL deals everyone’s talking about? They’re like unicorns,” says a prominent NIL collective director. “Sure, they exist, but they’re rare and usually reserved for proven performers. You can’t eat potential.”

Making the Right Choice

The transfer portal can be a powerful tool for student-athletes when used wisely. The key is understanding that program fit trumps potential NIL earnings every time. A player in the right system, with the right coaching staff, getting meaningful playing time, will have far more opportunities – both on and off the field – than someone riding the bench with a flashy NIL deal.

The Bottom Line

As we watch the transfer portal numbers continue to climb (likely to surpass 2,000 by week’s end), remember this: The portal is a tool, not a lottery ticket. Success stories come from those who prioritize fit over finances, playing time over promises, and development over dollars.

For every player considering entering the portal, ask yourself: Are you running toward something or away from something? The answer to that question might just be the difference between your next step being a stepping stone or a stumbling block.In this wild west of college football transfers, the winners won’t be those who chase the biggest check – they’ll be the ones who find the best fit. Because at the end of the day, you can’t cash checks from the bench.

B.Jones covers college football for RepMax Media. Follow on Twitter @repmax_io for more insights and breaking news.