The Million-Dollar High School Athlete: How NIL is Transforming Football Recruiting

The NIL Revolution: A Scout’s Perspective on the Changing Face of High School Recruitment

By M.Bady National Recruiting Analyst

As someone who’s spent the last decade evaluating high school talent and watching countless Friday night games from rickety press boxes across America, I can tell you this – NIL has turned the recruiting world on its head.

Gone are the days when a firm handshake and the promise of playing time could seal the deal with a five-star prospect. Now, when I sit down with these young athletes and their families, the conversation inevitably turns to “NIL potential” before we even discuss depth charts or offensive schemes.

Let me paint you a picture of what recruiting looks like in 2024:

The New Normal Just last week, I was watching a junior quarterback in Texas – kid’s got a cannon for an arm and the footwork of a dancer. Five years ago, we’d be talking about his completion percentage and TD-to-INT ratio. Today? The first question his parents asked me wasn’t about playing time or offensive systems – it was about NIL collectives and marketing opportunities.

And can you blame them? When you’ve got high school athletes like Bronny James and Mikey Williams signing seven-figure deals before stepping foot on a college campus, it changes the game entirely.

The Flip Factor Here’s where it gets interesting – and as a scout, somewhat concerning. I’m seeing more commitment flips than ever before, and it’s not just about playing time anymore. Take the case of  Dakorien Moore who recently flipped from LSU to Oregon. Word on the street is that Oregon’s NIL collective put together a package that LSU simply couldn’t match.

By my estimation, we’re seeing about a 30% increase in commitment flips compared to the pre-NIL era. And here’s the kicker – many of these flips are happening later in the process, sometimes just days before signing day.

The Power Shift What’s fascinating to me as a talent evaluator is how NIL has shifted power dynamics in recruiting. Schools that traditionally struggled to compete with blue-blood programs are now in the mix for top talent, provided they have strong NIL infrastructure.

Take SMU for example. They’ve never been a recruiting powerhouse, but their aggressive NIL collective and partnerships with local businesses have helped them land three 4-star recruits this cycle – something that would’ve been unthinkable just three years ago.

The Impact on Evaluation As someone who makes their living evaluating talent, I’ve had to adapt my approach. It’s no longer enough to just assess a player’s on-field abilities. Now, I’m looking at:

• Social media following
• Marketing potential
• Public speaking ability
• Family business acumen
• Local market opportunities

These factors can significantly impact a player’s NIL value and, by extension, their recruiting process. Winners and Losers From where I sit in the press box, here’s how the NIL era is shaking out:

Winners:

• Elite prospects with strong personal brands
• Schools with organized NIL collectives
• Programs in major media markets
• Athletes with entrepreneurial mindsets

Losers:

• Programs slow to adapt to NIL
• Schools in smaller markets
• Traditional recruiting powerhouses relying on legacy alone

Looking Ahead As someone who’s been in this business for years, I can tell you that NIL is here to stay, but we’re still in the Wild West phase. I expect to see:

1. More structured NIL programs at the high school level
2. Increased emphasis on personal branding in youth sports
3. The emergence of NIL advisors specifically for high school athletes
4. Greater disparity between top recruits and middle-tier prospects

Scout’s Take If you’re asking me – and plenty of coaches do – I’ll tell you that NIL has made talent evaluation more complex but also more interesting. We’re not just looking for the best athletes anymore; we’re looking for the total package. Can they play? Can they sell? Can they handle the spotlight?

For high school prospects reading this, my advice is simple: Work on your game first, but don’t ignore the business side. Your highlight reel might get you noticed, but in today’s landscape, your NIL potential might be what gets you signed. The Bottom Line As a scout, I’ve seen the recruiting landscape change dramatically over the years, but nothing compares to the NIL revolution. It’s created a new paradigm where athletic ability is just one piece of an increasingly complex puzzle.

Is it better or worse? That’s not for me to say. But what I can tell you is this – if you’re not thinking about NIL in your recruiting strategy, you’re already behind the curve.

And from my seat in the press box, that’s exactly how I see it.

M.Bady your National Recruiting Analyst with over 10 years of experience evaluating high school talent. Follow him on Twitter @repmax_io for more insights into college football recruiting.